Monday, December 11, 2006

Tigers Offseason pt. 1

I titled this entry "pt.1" because I am sure I'll revisit this topic several times between now and April 1st. There were/are several issues that the Tigers front office has to tackle this offseason, some have been accomplished (deciding what to do with Inge/First Base/Big bat) and some need to be addressed (lefty reliever, Pudge's successor, etc). As I look at the Tigers 40 man roster right now I can spot 22 guys who I assume would be on the 25 man roster if the season were to start right now...

Pitchers: Bonderman, Verlander, Rogers, Robertson, Ledezma, Jones, Rodney, Zumaya, and the recently acquired Jose Mesa. (9)

Batters: Casey, Polanco, Neifi Perez, Guillen, Ramon Santiago, Inge, Monroe, Ordonez, Thames, Granderson, Sheffield, Pudge, Vance Wilson. (13)

I would say there's a 95% chance at least one of those guys will fail to make the team come April for one reason or another. So what needs to be addressed now and what are the options? Obviously the biggest change so far has been the addition of Gary Sheffield. Sheffield completely changes the way this team will look at who is suddenly expendable. Sheffield played a little first base for the Yankees last year but apparently he is not a fan of the position and has been told by the Tigers that he will not play any first. That means that the Tigers will be relying on the average but fun to root for Sean Casey. Sheffield does make either Craig Monroe or Marcus Thames. My gut tells me that Thames is the most likely to go. Thames isn't quite the fielder Monroe is. I also think that Thames is the kind of batter who will make a pitcher pay for a bad pitch but at the same time, a good and patient pitcher could get him 9 times out of 10. I don't trust him. On the other hand, Monroe is a lot more marketable and could garner a lot more in a trade than Thames. Monroe has a flare for the dramatic, that will probably keep him in Detroit. He hit several big home runs during the regular season and hit five in the playoffs. However, he struck out nearly 130 times last year after never reaching the 100 plateau before. Monroe's on base percentage (OBP) was .301, the lowest of any Tiger with at least 200 at bats. Not good. All of HRs are great, however, if no one is ever on base while they're being hit it takes away from all of the fun.

The Tiger's lost left handed relief pitcher Jamie Walker. I am a fan of that fact. First of all, Baltimore gave him a three year deal worth $12 million dollars, just insane money for a 35 year old relief pitcher. Secondly, Walker fell apart as the season progressed. Take a look at Walker's month-by-month ERA splits:

April: 1.13
May: 0.00
June: 2.57
July: 0.82
August: 5.68
September: 6.75

The Tiger's should be able to find a lefty to replace Walker at a fraction of the price and someone who is also a little bit more steady. They selected a lefty, Edward Campusano (pictured) in the Rule 5 draft, he may pan out. Odds are the Tigers see what they have this winter/spring and then turn either Thames (85% chance) or Monroe (15% chance) for bullpen help.

One asset the Tiger's may try to get in a Thames/Monroe trade would be a young catcher. Pudge is 35 and is in the last year of his contract. The Tiger's front office is aware that something needs to be done as good young catchers are a big catch.

The Tiger's must also decide who their fifth starter is going to be. There are a few options there, Ledezma, Miner, and Maroth. Each pitcher is flawed. Ledezma can be tough but seems to be more reliable as a relief pitcher. Miner started strong but faltered down the stretch. The real wild card is Maroth. Maroth had elbow surgery last year and only made a few starts at the start of the season. If Maroth is his usual self the Tigers are in great shape, if he is not the Tiger's may be forced to start someone who hasn't quite proven anything in the Majors.

-Blake-

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