Friday, May 4, 2007

Big Time Series

As many of you know, the Pistons start their series with the Chicago Bulls tomorrow. While the Pistons are the top seed in the East and the Bulls are the 4th, this is a very tight match up. The Pistons won only four more games than the Bulls with the Bulls taking three out of four from the Pistons. I really don't think too much should be made of the Bulls record against the Pistons however. Regular season records don't show who was hurt in a game or if the game was a second in a back-to-back situation. Not to take anything away from the Bulls, I just think these two teams are really tight.

The series should be very close and things could get a bit chippy. I say there's a pretty good chance we'll more than our fair share of technicals and plenty of physical play. One cool subplot here is that, at least for this season, it will determine if Ben Wallace was worth the money. I still like that the Pistons let Wallace go. I remember speaking with my Uncle Tim and Rob's wedding about a year ago about how the Pistons should just let him go. Yeah, he was good. He was great on D, but his attitude was getting tired and so was his body. 90% of his game is based on being in shape and being quick. I don't need to tell anyone that as a person gets older they lose some of that "shape" and "quickness."

Let's break this down as simply as possible:

Guards: Bulls (Duhon, Gordon, Hinrich, Sefolosha) vs Pistons (Hamilton, Billups, Murray, Hunter). Hinrich is a pesky defender, and a solid point guard. Duhon and Sefolosha are the back ups, Duhon is the solid point guard who isn't much a scorer and Sefolosha plays great defense with some offense. The key here is Ben Gordon. Gordon can fill it up with the best of them, he can also go on cold streaks like nobodies business. Billups and Hamilton are an open book, we all know what they do. Don't expect Billups to score at will on Hinrich like he did against Orlando. I give the Pistons a slight edge here because of the experience and the scoring power.

EDGE: Pistons

Forwards: Bulls (PJ Brown, Luol Deng, Ty Thomas, Nocioni) vs Pistons (Wallace, Prince, McDyess, Delfino, Maxiell) Again, give the Pistons the edge on experience. Prince and Wallace have done this hundreds of times. However, this Bulls group is athletic, the Pistons cannot match them there. Deng is a force but should be neutralized a bit by Prince. The real question mark here is Rasheed. Rasheed isn't quite as spry as he once was, I worry about what guys like Ty Thomas could do to him. Nocioni's offense is a lot like Tayshaun's a bit of a driver who can hit the three's. Maxiell and Delfino probably won't see much action.

EDGE: Even

Centers: Ben Wallace vs Chris Webber. A match up of aging big men. Big edge here to Wallace. Wallace can still change the game with his defense. Webber barely plays any defense. Webber obviously has the edge offensively but that could be shut down by Big Ben.

EDGE: Bulls

Coaching: Scott Skiles has always been known as a tough guy and this Bulls team is buying into his style. Remember early in the year when he got into that big thing with Ben Wallace about his headbands? That went in his favor, the team respects him. Flip Saunders gets a bad rap in Michigan which isn't fair. He's been the coach for two years. They finished with the best record in the East both times. Made it to the Eastern Conference Finals last year and could get there again this year. Saunders also has more playoff experience and coaching experience than Skiles. Not a must to be a good coach, but a plus. Plus it looks like the Pistons are finally starting to know how to play some good zone defense.

EDGE: Pistons

The main edge for the Pistons here is home court. Most people seem to think this series will go seven games. Game seven will be in Detroit. I have a hard time believing anyone can take a game seven in Detroit.

Pistons in 7.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Bulls will win a game or two at home-- but the Pistons are too smart right now.

The Bulls are not crafty enough (with the exception of Ben Wallace), to do all the little things you have to do to win in the playoffs-- like not turn the ball over, have unexpected guys step up and score big, and play a bit more physical, without getting called for it by the refs.

Also, Chauncey Billups has extra incentive, since he is going to get paid this summer. If he continues to dominate in the playoffs, he will get chased down by everyone, especially the desperate teams-- the Lakers, T-wolves, Grizzlies, Miami, Indiana, and maybe even Dallas.

Anonymous said...

I agree on the Chauncey points, although I don't think he ever needs much extra motivation. I can see Dallas breaking the bank for him.

Coach Rob said...

This series is not nearly as close as everyone thoughts. Those first two games were blow outs...plain and simple.

As far as Chauncey goes, I'd liek to see some allegiance to the Motor City, but it just won't happen. There are too many teams (see Hawk's post) that need someone who is a legit point guard and can lead a team. There are so few out there, its sad.