As we enter mid-June, teams in MLB size up their chances at a playoff run and then act accordingly. For example, the Texas Rangers have the worst record in baseball even though they have some of the most talented hitters in the game and a strong bullpen. In the next couple weeks they will decided whether they want to trade off pieces for youngsters or stick with what they have. On the other side of that coin there are teams in contention who need to decide if they stand pat or look to give up some youngsters for some help at a playoff run. It's great fun in my mind and I get all giddy just thinking about it.
If the playoffs were to start today the Tigers would be in as the wild card, not bad. However, that doesn't mean this team does not need help. Their hitting has been other-worldly thus far and it should cool down a bit, but they are still lethal. The pitching has been another story. Guys like Chad Durbin and Tim Byrdak have done an admiral job filling in for the likes of Joel Zumaya and Kenny Rogers, but the fact of the matter is, they are a little too thin at pitching right now. Nate Robertson has been awful, ditto for the recently cut Jose Mesa. Check out these ERAs of the Tigers staff: (should be noted that ERA is a flawed stat, but it will work fine to prove my point here)...
Jeremy Bonderman: 3.63 very respectable
Tim Byrdak: 1.84 he's doing a terrific job
Chad Durbin: 4.59 solid but not great
Jason Grilli: 6.21 just awful, he need to turn it around or could end up in the minors.
Todd Jones: 5.55 embarrassingly bad for a closer
Wil Ledezma: 4.45 okay, but again, not impressive
Mike Maroth: 5.29 soft tosser is really getting hit hard
Nate Robertson: 5.07 has gone downhill big time his past 6 or 7 starts
Fernando Rodney: 5.25 I feel like he gives up runs every time he pitches
Bobby Seay: 4.96 has gotten progressively worse
Justin Verlander: 3.12 good for 11th in the league.
Aside from Bonderman and Verlander, everyone listed here either 1) didn't log enough big league innings last year to make not of or 2) has seen a significant rise in ERA. Most players ERAs are up on the team not a good trend. The season is 1/3 now so it's getting to the point now where you can start thinking, "what you see is what you get". I like Ledezma, he's still young and can pitch long relief, he gets to stay. I'm going to give Robertson the benefit of the doubt and hope that he can turn it around. The rest of the guys are either hot but shaky (Byrdak and Durbin) or just bad this year.
There has been talk recently of the Rangers trying to trade Eric Gagne (0.56 ERA) and Akinori Otsuka (2.28 ERA) and that the Tigers may be in the running for one or both of them. Gagne is very injury prone, I'd stay away from him and Otsuka is 35 years old so I wouldn't give much up for him. If the cost is too high for these guys I'd rather the Tigers just stand pat with what they have and hope some of these guys get hot at the right time.
1 comment:
This is a very interesting time for teams and it certainly is exciting.
THe Tigers could use an arm or two in shoring up their lineup. When Rogers and Zumaya are back they should be OK.
There are so many teams in tough spots that two come to mind right off the bat.
First, the NY Mets. They are leading their division. Yet, something about them says, "uncertainty". Maybe its that they are 2-8 in their last 10. Maybe its that Moises Alou has no anticipated date to return. Maybe it because one of the aces gut got lit up for a zillion runs by the wild card team of the other league. EIther way, this is a great example of a team that can't blow up their core but MUST make changes to be competitive.
Another interesting example is the White Sox. Here is a team only a few years removed from a World Series. What happened? I don't think they could hit a slow pitch softball. They need bats pretty bad. But they have players that can hit, right? Die, Konerko, et al are all great players. WHy trade one of them off and get half the market value bec they aren't prodcuing and in return get someone who may not flourish in the system or gel with the team. A very interesting scenario. It makes it even more interesting because they are 6 games under .500 with a team that very much resembles the championship team.
Last, I want to comment on getting hot. Blake mentioned that the tigers could stick with what they have and hope they get hot at the right time. This is a very high risk, high reward strategy. WHy? If you don't make a move, you might end up sitting at home come playoff time. In the same breathe, look at the Cardinals last year. They where probably the 5th or 6th best team going into the playoffs coming in and ended up winning it all bec of hot pitching.
Everyone is hpping to get hot at the right time. Teams that were off to a hot start (i.e. Boston, NYM, Cle) will slow as the summer goes on. This will allow teams like the Tigers and the Yankees to climb back into their division races (Currently, Tigers are 1 game out and the Yankees have made up 4 games in the last 7 days on the BoSox).
Then again, it isn't even the all start break. It is shaping up to be a great summer!
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