Baseball and Luck

Last year was a great year for Tiger fans, easily the best since 1984. I like to think back on last season, it makes me happy. Last fall was so great. Forward a year to the present and things aren't quite so cheery. The Tigers are trailing and not gaining any ground. With the exception of Monday nights win against the Mariners, they haven't been winning the games they need to win. The same can be said for a lot of other teams. If memory serves, here who was in the playoffs last season:

Tigers

Twins

A's

Yankees

Mets

Cardinals

Padres

Dodgers

Of that list the Yankees, Mets, and Padres would be in if the playoffs started today, that means that five teams certainly fell short of expectations this season. How does that happen? Some of it has to do with the teams in their league improving. Some of it has to do with teams getting worse. Those are all easy things to take a look at if you just want to look at roster changes, but that really doesn't tell the whole story. What about luck?

Let's start with the Tigers. Last year the Tigers went 95-67. They entered spring training this year with the same starting lineup except they added Gary Sheffield to that mix and they started with the same group of pitchers with the addition of Jose Mesa. It would stand to reason that with the same club that won 95 games the year before and the addition of Sheffield that this team would be a lock for 95 wins again this season. The only way the Tigers get there this year is if they win their last 16 games of the regular season.

Last year the Tigers had very little problem with injuries. Polanco missed 50 games last season and fifth starter Mike Maroth was hurt. That was about it. This year Kenny Rogers has made only 8 starts all year (he won 17 games last year). Joel Zumaya was obviously lights out all year last year, this year he has played in only 22 games and his performance has declined due to injuries. Jeremy Bonderman is 11-9 with a 5.00 ERA this year and is done due to injuries after going 14-8 with a 4.00 ERA last year. Last year Brandon Inge and Craig Monroe combined to hit 55 HR, this year they combined to hit 25 before Monroe was traded.

Let's take a look at the Twins. The Twins are tough every single year. This season they brought back most of the same players and had some really good young players to add to the mix. The Twins won 96 games last year and this year they are 71-73 with no chance of making the playoffs. What happened there? Last year Joe Mauer hit .347 with 13 HR and 84RBI, this year Mauer is hitting .292 with 5HR and 53RBI. He has also missed 50 games. Last season Michael Cuddyer hit 24 HR with 109 RBI compare that with this seasons 13 HR and 73 RBI. Last season the Twins got 68 wins from their starting pitching, this season, 53.

The fact is that baseball has a lot to do with luck, both good and bad. Last season the Tigers had some amazing luck and it all happened at once. Brandon Inge and Craig Monroe played way above their heads. Those guys had no business combining for all of those homeruns, but they put it together last year. Joe Mauer is not going to flirt with .350 every season, he got hot at the right time last year and the Twins dominated.

The injury bug can also be filed under luck most of the time. Injuries avoided the Tigers last year, this year, not so much. Ditto for the Twins and the A's. That's baseball. I can't complain about bad luck with injuries and down year when that door swings both ways and can really help you out at some times.

If one were to take a look at the statistical leaders at any given time during the season, even the most knowledgable baseball fan would find someone in each top 10 list who they never have thought would be there. Obviously the guys on these lists are talented, they play baseball for a living, but every season there are a handful of guys who play way over their heads for the season and their team rides that to the playoffs. Here's a quick look at some of those players and how it has made their team improve:

1. Jorge Posada (C) NY Yankees: Posada is hitting .338 this season, good for fourth in the American League. Posada is a good player, he's been catching for the Yankees the past ten years and is consistently good. However, he is a career .277 hitter. His career high was .287 before this season. There is no explaination for why a .277 hitter just hits .338 for an entire season. Like I said, Posada is good, but even the most hardcore Yankee fan (Rob?) has to admit this is surprising. In a lineup with very few holes, to get all these extra hits from a .277 hitter has to have created a lot more runs for the pinstripes this year.

2. Carlos Pena (1B) Tampa Bay D'Rays: Pena is second in the American League with 39 homeruns. Last year Tampa Bay was awful. This year? They are awful again. The reason why this one is so important is that in the past two years, this guy has been property of the Tigers, the Red Sox and the Yankees. Go ahead and try to tell me either of those teams wouldn't want a lefty first baseman with 39 homeruns.

3. Fausto Carmona (SP) Cleveland Indians: Carmona(right) is fourth in the AL with 16 wins. Last year Carmona had a record of 1-10 and blew saves at a comical rate. This year the Indians gave him a shot at the starting rotation and he has responded big time. He owns the Tigers like no one else and that sinker is said to be better than Chien-Ming Wang's. Not bad. Now the Indians are heading for the playoffs.

4.Dmitri Young (1B) Washington Nationals: When the season started writers around the baseball world had the Nationals pegged as one of the worst teams of all time. They were a team with very little young talent and the rest of the roster was filled with rejects from other teams (Dmitri Young and Ronni Belliard). Young, cut by the Tigers last fall is sixth in the NL in batting with a .327 average. Most know that Young can hit, but most figured he was washed up. The Nationals had nothing to lose and picked him up. Instead of losing 120 games the Nationals are 65-80.

5. Chris Young (OF) Arizona D'Backs and Ryan Braun (3B) Brewers: Both of these guys were big time prospects heading into the season. Very few expected them to be so good so soon. They are tied for fifth in the NL in HR with 30 each. It's no coincidence that they are both on 1st place teams.

This is what makes baseball so much fun. The season is so long, there can be so many ups and downs and much of it cannot be explained by anything other than luck.